You say 'Jamaal Charles's expected fantasy points this week is 10.41'?

Some players score less on average, but are very reliable – they score roughly the same number of fantasy points every time they play. Some players score more on average, but they can score 0 points one week and then 30+ points the following week. Which one would you pick for your team?

After interviewing fantasy football fans, we found that several advanced players want to see a distribution instead of a single point estimate. They were also looking for 'high risk, high return' players who can help them win daily fantasy contests.

But most fantasy football websites just give you an average point prediction or a rank, completely missing out on the variability of your players! For example, this visualization shows the wide variation in standard deviation of rushing yards (x-axis) for players with the same average rushing yards (y-axis).

Our Approach

We've use a player's past six weeks and average career stats to forecast their stats for next week. Like other fantasy football websites we make accurate average point predictions (here are the predictions and analysis of accuracy). Unlike other fantasy football websites, we also predict the entire distribution of a player's points next week so you can make better decisions. You can find out how we do that or go straight to the predictions.

Expert Opinions, Vegas Odds – Our models gives point predictions. ESPN will tell you what they think when you visit their website. CBS and FFToday will do the same thing. Vegas odds will also tell you something about a player's performance. They compete to make more accurate predictions. In Waiver Coach, we bring those predictions together in one place. Predictions for some players will fall in a narrow range for all sources, for some players everyone will have different thoughts. Waiver Coach will show you the distribution; it's up to you to make the final decision.

Personalized for You and Your Team

If you login to your Yahoo account, we will filter our player lists for who's available in your league.

Football is a team sport. There are ways to use that fact to your advantage. You could get 10 points instead 6 for every Gronk touchdown if you also have Tom Brady. Our next goal is to incorporate correlations between players into our predictions, so we can make suggestions tailored for your team, not for everybody.